The Lancet has published a study on moddeling life expectancy, all-cause mortality and cause of death forecasts. The authors' reference forecast predicted continued declines in global mortality and improvements in life expectancy, though at a slower rate than achieved in the past. Because of faster progress among many lower-SDI countries, absolute disparities between countries are currently projected to narrow by 2040. Nonetheless, the differences between better health and worse health scenarios for 2040 remain substantial, emphasising that the reference forecast is not inevitable and thus policy choices made today can profoundly affect each country’s future health trajectories.